Those present included envoys from Greece, Italy and Spain, who buy some
450,000 barrels of Iranian crude every day, making them Tehran’s biggest
European customers. By phasing in the agreed embargo over almost six months,
the EU aimed to give them time to find alternative supplies.
But the ambassadors were told that Iran would halt its oil sales unless these
countries agreed to sign long term supply contracts – a step that would
violate the EU embargo, which already bans new agreements with Tehran.
Representatives of France, Portugal and the Netherlands – who only buy token
amounts of Iranian oil – were also present. They were told these minimal
supplies would stop immediately, according to Mehr, a semi-official news
agency.
The unveiling ceremony took place in Tehran (AFP/GETTY)
The oil market reacted to the possibility of Iran halting oil sales to Europe
by sending the price of a barrel of Brent crude up by $1 to reach $118.
Taking this step could be a “very smart move” for Iran, said Prof
Paul Stevens, senior research fellow on energy at Chatham House.
Iran would almost certainly be able to find alternative buyers in Asia, he
said, noting that China aims to purchase 450,000 barrels every day this year
to fill a newly-completed strategic reserve. Iran would probably have to
offer a discount to secure a new deal with China, but if oil prices were to
rise, its revenues could hold up anyway, argued Prof Stevens.
“The Iranians have said to the EU, if you want to play hardball, we can
play hardball too,” he said. “To some extent this was inevitable
arising from the stunning incompetence of the EU, which didn’t think through
the consequences of introducing an oil embargo.”
Prof Stevens added: “The oil market is too complex and too diverse for
any embargo to be effective.”
However, western officials disagree with this assessment, pointing out that
Iran is now forced to keep huge quantities of unsold oil sitting at sea on
idle tankers. Last October, Iran had 34.3 million barrels of crude in “floating
storage”, according to the International Energy Agency, suggesting a
serious difficulty with finding buyers.
While trying to use oil for diplomatic leverage, Iran also sent the West a
defiant message over its nuclear ambitions. During his appearance at the
Tehran Research Reactor, Mr Ahmadinejad told scientists that Iran needed
four more plants of this kind in “four different spots”, adding: “Go
build them, to carry out research activities and provide radio-medicine
needed by the country.”
Mr Ahmadinejad also claimed that 3,000 new centrifuges had been installed at a
different plant, including advanced “fourth generation” models,
allowing uranium enrichment to proceed far more rapidly.
However, experts treated both announcements with scepticism. The Tehran
reactor is a genuine civilian facility designed to produce medical isotopes
for cancer treatment. “There are absolutely no military implications to
this at all,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, head of non-proliferation at the
International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The implications are
political: it’s basically a way of showing Iran’s people that sanctions have
not impeded the nuclear programme.”
As for the claim that Iran had managed to build “fourth generation”
centrifuges, Mr Fitzpatrick said that was “almost certainly” an
exaggeration. Iran has spent most of the last decade trying to develop a
second generation centrifuge. While 260 have been installed, they are still
only at an experimental stage.
“I’m sceptical that they’re leapfrogging on to the next generation,”
added Mr Fitzpatrick. “We shouldn’t be too impressed by this. We
shouldn’t start to build bomb shelters yet.”
While proclaiming the alleged progress of its nuclear programme, Iran also
accepted an invitation to resume talks with the five permanent members of
the Security Council and Germany.
Saeed Jalili, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, wrote to
Baroness Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy chief, saying that Iran “welcomes”
negotiations “in order to take fundamental steps toward further
cooperation”.
The last talks took place in Istanbul over a year ago and led to no progress.
At that time, Iran was unwilling to discuss its nuclear ambitions except in
the most general terms.
Since then, however, tighter sanctions have increased the economic pressure on
the regime. Western officials believe these tougher measures have
effectively brought Iran back to the negotiating table. They interpret
Iran’s recent moves as possible signs that the country’s leadership could be
willing to modify its position.
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