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April 9th, 2013 
Peter Nolan
AUSTRALIA’S unemployment rate is expected to have held steady in March, but could rise in the next few months.
AAP’s survey of 14 economists, shows a median forecast for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.4 per cent.
Total employment is expected to be flat for March, while the participation rate – the percentage of the working age population either employed or looking for jobs – is expected to fall 0.1 per cent to 65.2.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release its latest employment figures on Thursday.
But economists don’t quite know what to make of the current state of the jobs markets in light of February’s jobs figures, which showed an extra 71,500 people found work – one of the strongest monthly figures on record.
Forecasts for March range from a fall in total employment of 40,000 to a rise of 15,000.
Many believe the February figure was distorted, possibly due to changes in the population sample used by the ABS, and are expecting a correction in March.
“Surveys always have the ability to produce a rogue number and that is the case here,” National Australia Bank group chief economist Alan Oster said.
Mr Oster expects total employment to have fallen by 30,000 in March.
He says the jobs market just isn’t strong enough to generate the kind of jobs growth seen in February.
“We think the labour market was pretty flat and unemployment was either going sideways or edging up a bit and we still think that so we’ve reversed part of the statistical noise.”
AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver also expects a fall in total employment.
“It’s hard to believe that jobs growth is actually that strong so we will likely see some sort of correction,” he said.
“I’d be loathe to read too much into one month’s jobs numbers.
“To confirm the labour market really is on an improving trend you’d need to see several months of figures.”
Dr Oliver expects the unemployment rate to move higher in coming months, possibly peaking around 5.6 or 5.7 per cent before improving in 2014.
But JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy thinks while the unemployment rate will hold steady in March, there will be an extension of February’s surge in employment, albeit with a more moderate number.
“We think the jobless rate will hold a line at 5.4 per cent,” he said.
“To get there the economy is going to have to add somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000 jobs and we think it’s going to be on the lower end of that range.”
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