John Major could be underdog Nicolas Sarkozy’s inspiration in re-election bid

John Major, shown here with David Cameron, is among Mr Sarkozy’s
inspirations

While Miss Le Pen’s chances of knocking out Mr Sarkozy now look slim, he needs
a near miracle to catch his Socialist rival in the run-off on May 6, as Mr
Hollande is polling 57.5 per cent to his 42.5 per cent.

But he is keeping the flame of hope alive, advisers reportedly say, by
studying past cases of seemingly lame duck leaders who clinched victory from
the jaws of defeat.

Among those discussed, according to Le Figaro, are George W Bush’s close
shaves against Democrat contenders Al Gore and John Kerry, and closer to
home, Neil Kinnock’s shock defeat to John Major in 1992, one of the biggest
electoral surprises in 20th century politics.

Mr Kinnock’s failure was blamed on public mistrust of Labour’s spending plans,
the famous Sheffield Rally where he acted as if he had already won and the
Sun’s headline: “If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave
Britain please turn out the lights”.

According to Le Figaro, Mr Sarkozy could discuss the Kinnock scenario on
Friday with David Cameron when the pair meet for an Anglo-French summit in
Paris.

Mr Sarkozy is likewise expected to warn the French their already sputtering
economy will go to the dogs if the Left wins this Spring and his “spending
detox” programme is not allowed to continue.

“One cannot in all areas have only one principle on one’s lips, namely
‘more spending, more (public sector) works, more taxes,’ which will result
in less jobs, less growth and more problems,” he told Le Figaro.

Mr Hollande has been at pains to reassure French and British reporters he is
anything but a carbon copy of François Mitterrand, the last Socialist
president whose nationalisation programme in 1981 brought France to its
knees before he changed tack.

But Mr Sarkozy will attack the Socialist’s modest spending freeze, along with
his plans to reverse a flagship pension reform raising the official
retirement age from 60 to 62 and to create 60,000 jobs in state education.

The President has effectively been on the campaign trail for weeks, unveiling
a rash of measures from raising VAT in order to reduce payroll charges to
slapping a 0.1 per cent tax on financial transactions. He can rely on the
support of Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, with whom he has so far
staved off the collapse of the eurozone.

More recently he has championed conservative social values, speaking out
against gay marriage and euthanasia, vaunting the triptych “work,
responsibility, authority”, and proposing two referendums on
immigration and welfare reform.

History suggests that incumbent French presidents have never gained much
support from re-election campaign launches.

But with the polls still flat lining, the Sarkozy camp is pinning its hopes on
its leader’s charismatic campaigning skills in the coming ten weeks.

Advisers say his Annecy speech will centre on fostering a “government of
the people, by the people and for the people” and he may express regret
for some of his worst faux pas – further detailed in an “intimate”
book on his presidency in March.

“The game is far from over. The polls, the comments, all this will be
wiped away in the three weeks before the election,” François Fillon, Mr
Sarkozy’s prime minister, told Le Monde.

“He has maintained his close relationship with the French people. During
the campaign he will find the words and ways to reach out to them.”

Mr Hollande, meanwhile, dismissed the hype saying: “Everyone knew Sarkozy
was a candidate, it changes nothing.”

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