Kevin Rudd plots two-stage comeback to regain old job

Norman Abjorensen, a political analyst from the Australian National
University, said the malaise could continue well beyond Monday and Australia
was immersed in “choppy political waters”. The most likely
scenario, he said, is that Mr Rudd will lose the ballot on Monday and then
muster his troops from the backbench.

“Rudd would have left the ministry, so he would not be saddled with
ministerial duties,” Dr Abjorensen told the Daily Telegraph. “He
has all the time in the world to lobby and persuade. That would be the worst
outcome – everybody would be looking over their shoulders … How much can
he ruin the PM? That remains to be seen.”

Mr Rudd is believed to presently have at least 30 votes in the 103-member
caucus, though the numbers are fluid. A victory for Mr Rudd would be likely
to lead to an early election because he is not assured of support from the
independent MPs who hold the balance of power. One independent, Tony
Windsor, has already stated that if Mr Rudd wins “all bets are off”.

According to Dr Abjorensen, Mr Rudd would need about 35 votes or more to gain
a platform for a further attempt.

“If Rudd challenged and was humiliated by the margin of his defeat, he
would be consigned to oblivion,” he said. “If he could only muster
20 votes, he would be written off.”

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