Militants may be free to control Somalia’s south

Officials hope the conference will bolster efforts to lure Islamic groups that
had been close to al-Shabaab into constitutional politics and reject the
group, which last week announced it had “merged” with al-Qaeda. It could see
pledges to increase aid to those areas that choose to reject the terror
group.

Couched in diplomatic language, the agreement would set the stage for de-facto
partition of the country, with international support concentrated on “areas
of stability” outside of al-Shabaab’s control. The new assembly would assume
the role of Somalia’s parliament.

“Unless the constitution is agreed by August 2012, the Constitutional Assembly
should then assume the legislative functions of government from the
Transitional Federal Parliament, while the executive functions of government
should pass from the TFG to an Interim Authority,” a discussion document
said.

The Foreign Office refused to discuss the documents last night, saying it
never comments on reported leaks.

In the run-up to the meeting, the Foreign Office has said it wants to “help
galvanise a common approach to address the problems and challenges of
Somalia that affect us all”.

David Cameron will chair the gathering of Somali and foreign leaders,
including Ban Ki-moon, the general secretary of the United Nations, and
Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, to restore government to a
country that has been in chaos since 1991.

Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, Somalia’s prime minister, said this week that he hopes
for a “Marshall Plan” in which foreign countries pour money and diplomatic
resources into efforts to end two decades of factional and tribal fighting.

“Somalia expects a lot from this conference. We expect the establishment of a
trust fund for Somalia. We expect a complete reconstruction plan,” he said.

A spokesman for al-Shabaab ridiculed the conference and said the choice of
venue in central London was a demonstration that British officials wanted to
resume colonial meddling in the region.

On Twitter, Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage said: “It’s the imperious nature of the
Brits that sees them meddling in Islam affairs in the hope of reviving a
hopeless dream of a British Empire.”

Diplomats involved in drafting the agenda for the conference said that the
outcome would capitalise on the expansion of territory under TFG control in
recent months after a military offensive by African Union and Kenyan troops.

“We are very much trying to build momentum and consensus for the Somali
efforts under way,” the official said. The communique also endorses an
international system of justice for pirates operating from Somalia but
seized by naval patrols on the high seas.

It said that suspected pirates would face the courts in Seychelles and
Mauritius and those convicted would be sent to prisons in the autonomous
Somalian regions of Somaliland and Puntland.

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