Samir Amin on Sisi, Egypt and Turkey

The veteran Egyptian marxist economist and thinker, Professor Dr Samir Amin, shares his thoughts on the current situation in Egypt, Turkey and the Middle East.

AD : Professor Dr Samir Amin, a veteran of countless economic development programs for various countries in the oppressed world, has spoken to Aydınlık newspaper about the situation in Egypt and what might hold the solution to the country’s issues.

Samir AminOne of the vital subjects under discussion was the genesis of new projects aimed at extricating Egypt and the region from the neoliberal policies imposed on them and the related crises caused by these. Another was the similarities between the historical processes experienced in Turkey and Egypt, countries where events at times closely mirror one another. Amin, who was born in Egypt in 1931, is the author of over thirty books, including works translated into English, Turkish and other languages and read around the world.

Amin’s colourful career history includes a spell as a researcher for the Egyptian Institute for Economic Management during the Nasser period and another in Bamako (Mali) as the head consultant of the Ministry of Planning. He has also worked for the UN African Economic Development and Planning Institute and has taught at various universities including Poitiers and Paris Vincennes.

What is the situation with the economic crisis in Egypt? In which direction is it advancing?

Of course, the crisis is deepening. It does not stem from the chaos of the last three years alone. It was getting worse beforehand, also, and it continues to get worse now. The policies implemented by the governments up to now have been liberal ones. These are not a response to the crisis. As a result the crisis continues to deepen; and with the chaos that enveloped the country, the tourism and other sectors collapsed. Of course, as a result of all of this the situation got even worse.

But people are aware of the situation…

The left-wing has a project in Egypt which has been newly published. A short time ago, we published an Arabic-language book in Egypt. I hope this book can be published in Turkey also.

In this book, besides other things, we present this program. It is not a program of the far left. This is the project of the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and trade unions, as well as two big youth momements, and also women’s movements. These files of the Egyptian Communist Party are extremely important. They show how certain sections of society had predicted the issues [faced now]. Of course, it is also clear that very little progress has been made on this subject.

What exactly is the content of this program?

This is a program which provides the starting point from which the country can escape neoliberalism. This is not an acute or complete handling of the subject, but should be perceived as a beginning. Through social and economic reform… That is the kind of program we present. If Sisi has the necessary intelligence and wishes to increase in popularity, these are the types of steps he will take. Of course we are not hoping for very great steps from him. I mean, we mustn’t expect him to turn into a true socialist or Nasserist. The circumstances are quite different. But that’s it, we shall wait and see.

Will there be stability in Egypt in the period ahead of us?

This is not a question that can be easily answered. Stability cannot be achieved during a period without reform, without steps to progressive reform or any change in international policy; or in a period where policies have not even begun to change…

If nothing changes in these areas, the instability will continue. For the people’s movement will continue.

What do you expect from the new constitution? Is it true that it takes a better approach towards women?

No, the new constitution is not a good one, but of course it is not as bad as it could be. This constitution secures great power for the general staff of the army and aims to take advantage of Sisi’s popularity to increase the army’s power even more; there is nothing else in it besides that. The issue isn’t just one of securing power for the security forces, there is also the need for support to create at least a perception, an illusion that the country’s problems will begin to be addressed.

Coming to Nasserism, as far as I understand it the Arab Spring has reached a new phase. Can we say that nationalism has been on the rise generally in the Arab World, and Nasserism particularly in Egypt?

Yes, yes… But you know, times have changed, and people. The new generation does not fully remember what Nasserism is. Like in Turkey, with Atatürk. He takes his place in a long history, and his image is a good one, but people don’t fully know understand what he is. Today many people in Egypt claim to be Nasserists, but when I ask them what exactly they mean by that, which policies they think should be implemented in Egypt, their answers are very vague.

Is there a political party of Nasserists?

There is a small Nasserist party, but it has a very limited framework. (Laughing) It is a movement consisting of people of my age, 80 and older. These are people who lived during the time of Nasser and saw him. However, these people do not represent Nasserism today. Nasserism today is much more widespread, but besides this political movement is naturally very vague.

What is the attitude of these people to Sisi’s administration?

They are of the attitude that we should wait and see what he brings, and not enter a conflict with Sisi, but rather we should push and encourage him to follow a Nasserist path…

And what is their stance on the USA and Israel?

They are anti-Americanists, but they don’t see the need to make a great issue of this. They believe Egypt should keep its distance [from the USA], and renew its relations with Russia, China, India, the South, and other countries from the East.

So can we say that they are Eurasianists?

Yes.

How do you evaluate the policy followed by the Muslim Brotherhood after Morsi was overthrown?

The Muslim Brotherhood has lost its reputation and popularity. However, they are organised in an extremely strong manner, with 600,000 members.

600,000 people for Egypt is not a very high figure. But one or two hundred thousand of these have military training. They can’t hope to win, but they can continuously cause problems. They are organised, and it would be true to say that they are terrorists.

There are claims that the Brotherhood is more moderate than jihadists and takfiris

This is the impression that they try to create, because they have need of Western support and to obtain this they need to be able to say, “no, we aren’t jihadists”. But in fact they are very close to being jihadists. They share the same vision.

Does Erdoğan have a role in this foolish adoption of violence of theirs?

The AKP government in the end encouraged the Muslim Brotherhood… So yes, of course they have had an influence on it…

What is the reason for the Brotherhood following such a violent policy?

I suppose they would have turned to violence in any situation.

But they had trusted in Erdoğan…

Yes, of course… But you know, they can only trust him so much. I mean, [his support for the Brotherhood] is more verbal, because Turkey cannot directly intervene in Egypt as they did in Syria, for example.

Some Brotherhood members in Turkey had thought that Erdoğan would provide more support to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt…

Yes, but, you know; I don’t think the Muslim Brotherhood leadership is stupid. Meaning, they know that Turkey’s existing government is a strong ally of theirs. But what can they actually do? They can come out in support of the Brotherhood, and make a target of the Egyptian army, as they have targeted Atatürk in Turkey. They can do all of that, but they can’t directly intervene; they can provide financial support, but anyway it isn’t money that the Brotherhood need now. They are receiving much more money from Qatar. If you ask why Turkey is directly involved in Syria, that is down to the long borderline the two countries share. They cannot do the same in Egypt.

We have heard news about ships full of weapons going from Turkey to Port Said in Egypt. In other words, that is the limit of what they can do…

Yes, yes… But if you really look at it, the Muslim Brotherhood needs neither weapons nor money. They have both in abundance.

How are relations between Turkey and Egypt progressing since Erdoğan’s interventions?

This is tied to relations with the USA. If Egypt follows a line that is slightly more independent of the USA, then it will start to be more distant from the current Turkish government.

You know that the sympathy the movement in Egypt feels towards Turkey is actually a sympathy to Atatürk. Atatürk is popular in Egypt! But not the current Turkish government!

So, is that how it is even in our day? Not just in the past…

Definitely… I’m talking about now.

It came out that Turkish intelligence had sent weapons to and were planning a coup in Egypt… How do the Egyptian people view this?

I believe that right now the great majority of the Egyptian people are against the current Turkish government and see this government as the enemy.

Can we say that the Muslim Brotherhood has collapsed across the whole Arab world?

I don’t believe that. But in Egypt, yes, it has collapsed. And in Tunisia too it is falling… I can’t say anything about Syria, because the situation there is very complicated. Right now nobody can know to what extent they are supported by the people, particularly among Sunnis.

What impact will the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have on other Islamist movements? Will they become more radical or will they follow a more democratic path?

No, they won’t take a democratic route. In fact, they may even become more radical than before. That is the situation we witness in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaeda are taking the matter in hand.

There are rumours that there is debate within the Muslim Brotherhood over whether they have been engaged in wrong activities. Do you think this movement could once again become divided?

I don’t expect such a thing. The Muslim Brotherhood has always been an undemocratic organisation. And of course, they have taken a beating. There have been echoes of differences of opinion on how to face their new situation. But none of this has ever led to a real split… It is difficult to know about the internal disputes of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Why didn’t the Saudis support the Muslim Brotherhood, are they not also takfiris?

The Saudis in charge of the issue adopted a stance according to the support from Qatar… The Saudis are clever… They understood that after a certain point the Muslim Brotherhood would quickly lose support and become unpopular in Egypt. Because of this, they gaves their support to a different branch of salafists, although that branch was not much different [to the Brotherhood]. They are hoping that the Islamist right will win again under a new face.

So wasn’t that a bit risky for them, in the end they lost…

(Laughing) It probably was, but what else could they do?

What is the approach of the new Egypt to the Syrian issue? Is there a difference to that taken in the Morsi period?

Naturally, of course there is… Morsi was one hundred percent beside the USA and Europe against Bashar Assad and gave his full support to Turkey’s intervention in Syria. He supported the Muslim Brotherhood and other similar elements in Syria. The extreme right-wing al-Qaeda also benefited greatly from this situation. But Sisi has taken a clear stance on this issue, having stated repeatedly that Egypt is friends with the Syrian government.

What kind of path will Sisi take?

We can’t know that now. At the moment he is under pressure. On the one hand there is the mercantile bourgeoisie and the pressure he is under from the USA, the Gulf States, Israel and Turkey. Right now he really is under pressure… If you wish to remain in power, you have to follow the same line followed in Egypt for the past 30 years. The right-wing, Western line.

But at the same time, there is also pressure from the people’s movement. This movement has different expectations, and most of its members expect change. They are expecting a more socialist direction in domestic politics; income reform; more rights for workers; and more rights for women; more rights for the youth, etc. This is what they expect, and at the same time these people are leftist-nationalists and patriots. They wise at the very least for the country to follow a foreign policy of distance to the Gulf States, Israel and Turkey. That is one of the basic expectations of the movement, and there is pressure on Sisi for this, too. But he is a man who possesses intelligence to the highest degree.

So he will act according to the pressure?

In the end we can’t foresee what he will do. We cannot see what type of manoeuvres he will make. You see, these questions cannot be answered today in full. We cannot discern whether he is a good or bad leader, whether he will follow the same policies or make changes. This is completely indiscernible.

Sisi in the last months has travelled to Moscow and met with Putin. Do you think this visit is a sign of Sisi’s leanings in foreign policy?

I hope so, but I am not sure. On the other hand,  it may be a manoeuvre designed to make the public think he is moving to extricate Egypt from the Americanist bloc. We have to wait and see…

Aydinlik Daily

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Source Article from http://nsnbc.me/2014/03/31/samir-amin-sisi-egypt-turkey/

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