Mr Annan’s six-point proposal, presented to the UN last week, calls for an “inclusive
political process”, an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of forces by
both sides, humanitarian aid deliveries, a release of prisoners, freedom of
movement for journalists, and respect for freedom of association and
demonstration.
Omitted is any mention of elections or a transfer of power, both demanded by
an Arab League proposal which has been the West’s working blueprint so far.
Both pro- and anti-Assad factions in the security council will boast that the
finding of common ground is a success.
“I strongly welcome the security council’s full and unanimous support for
the work of Kofi Annan as joint UN-Arab League envoy,” said William
Hague, the Foreign Secretary. “I urge the Syrian authorities to take
this chance to stop the bloodshed.”
But the fact that the West has had to back off from a regime change that would
end the rule of a key ally of Iran and of militant groups like Hamas and
Hizbollah shows the impasse it had reached.
Both the United States and its western allies have proved reluctant to become
closely involved militarily, even to the extent of supplying arms to the
rebels or encouraging their friends in the Middle East to do so.
“The statement is obviously watered down,” said Amr al-Azm, a Syrian
political analyst in exile in America. “It is clear that the Americans
are keen on getting something moving on the diplomatic side because nothing
else is happening for them.”
But Russia too has had to make concessions. One Western diplomat pointed to
the fact that despite initial Russian opposition the resolution refers to Mr
Annan’s role not only as a UN but also an Arab League envoy, hinting that
the League’s plan for Mr Assad to hand over powers to his vice-president is
still technically alive.
It will also be aware that if Mr Assad implements the plan and withdraws
troops, the chances are that widespread demonstrations will put his
authority under renewed threat. If he does not, continued support for him
would isolate Moscow even further diplomatically.
The Syrian opposition is in any case now preparing for a long-drawn out
conflict. Even if Mr Assad agrees to negotiations, none of the main rebel
groups inside the country or those who represent them outside have so far
countenanced the possibility of talks unless he indicates he is willing to
step down.
Both sides have become further entrenched since his campaign to retake major
rebel-held areas by sustained artillery bombardment began to show signs of
success. Yesterday his troops shelled Khaldiyah, a suburb of Homs, for the
second day, and while there were also heavy clashes in the outskirts of
Damascus.
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