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Iraq has taken the first steps toward forming a new government, but whether it can achieve lasting peace in the country remains questionable. Mohammed Shia’ Sabbar Al-Sudani, a former minister who has unexpectedly emerged as the new leader of the Shiites, is poised to take power as prime minister after forming a new coalition government with Kurdish and Sunni partners. Al-Sudani, who served under former dictator Saddam Hussein, has been tasked with forming a government to lead Iraq through one of its most difficult times.

The move comes after the country’s parliament elected a new Iraqi president, breaking a year-long deadlock the troubled nation faced after the last national election in October 2021. Lawmakers elected Abdul Latif Rashid, a former Kurdish minister, as the country’s new president. He replaces incumbent President Barham Salih, who lost the election in a dramatic political upheaval orchestrated by Iraq’s main factions.

Although elections for two key positions have temporarily broken the deadlock, the new government is unlikely to end the Iraqi crisis anytime soon. The leaders of Iraq’s rival political and ethnic groups, who have dominated Iraqi politics since 2003, Shafak said, are unlikely to end the country’s “permanent political gridlock and dysfunctionality.”

Iraq has been in a political crisis for nearly 20 years. The most recent example of this was the failure of the country’s political parties to form a new government after early elections last year. Now that a new prime minister has been elected, the most urgent task for Iraqi leaders vying for power is to form a cabinet professional enough to run the country and strong enough to last. According to the power-sharing agreement between the leaders of Iraq’s three main communities, the prime minister was to be a Shiite Muslim, the speaker of parliament was to be a Sunni Muslim, and the presidency was to go to a Kurd.

Although Al-Sudani has been named the next prime minister and Rashid the president, the political parties must negotiate how key positions in the government and security forces will be divided. At stake are such important posts as secretary general of the Cabinet of Ministers, governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, and heads of the intelligence and security services. Party and state leaders must also contend with enormous challenges posed by deepening political and social chaos, which are not helped by a profound economic crisis, pervasive corruption, an inefficient civil service system, and a possible winter wave of Covid-19. Although the new government promises to solve Iraq’s pressing problems, there is skepticism about whether it will usher in an era of political stability to address the many problems that have crippled the country since the conventionally inexplicable 2003 US invasion and the subsequent long brutal occupation.

The political situation in Iraq is undoubtedly so chaotic that at this point, nothing seems to be unambiguous. The country will face various problems in the coming months, one of the main concerns being the influential Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose bet on mobilizing the forces of discontent remains perhaps the biggest challenge for the new coalition government. After all, the current political crisis began when the Sadrist Movement, led by al-Sadr, won a majority of seats in parliament in the last parliamentary election and wanted to form a government of its choosing. But al-Sadr insisted on establishing a “majority” national government with potential Sunni and Kurdish partners, with whom he vowed to govern all Iraqis. The proposal alarmed most of the Iranian-backed Shiite factions that have controlled all “consensus governments” in Iraq since the unjustified US invasion in 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime.

A year later, al-Sadr was unable to establish a unified government under his control, despite the advantages he gained by steadily improving his image in the eyes of ordinary Iraqis and leading a party that had emerged from Iraq’s anti-establishment movement. Not only did he fail to overthrow the ruling clique entrenched in the country, al-Sadr suddenly decided to stop fighting the country’s rulers at the time. He ordered his supporters to leave parliament and others to cease street protests, and announced his retirement from politics, creating a political vacuum. As a result, the Iran-backed alliance, which is far behind the Sadrists and has only about 50 seats in the new parliament, managed to tip the “political scale” again and finally form a government. The alliance now hopes to push al-Sadr into political irrelevance, leading to further turmoil and complications in Iraq’s political landscape.

In this context, the cleric angrily stated that al-Sudani’s new government “clearly obeys only its leadership” and “will not fulfill the wishes of the people.” Mohammed Saleh al-Iraqi, a close ally of al-Sadr, said in a statement posted on social media, “We underline our strong and clear refusal to allow any of our allies … to participate in this government formation.” But al-Sadr’s current dilemma and his many supporters are the biggest fear for his opponents, according to experts on the ground. His rivals face growing opposition from many Iraqis who are stunned by the events of recent months, and al-Sadr can certainly try to play on their anger and discontent.

The second problem is the deepening distrust between the leaders of the two main Kurdish parties: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The Coordination Framework (CF), the Shiite bloc behind al-Sudani’s candidacy, reportedly has reached separate agreements with the KDP and PUK over power-sharing, resources, and the future of the city of Kirkuk, which is claimed by the Kurds. However, these agreements could lead to further controversy over the control of territory and natural resources such as gas and oil in Iraqi Kurdistan. The two parties governing Kurdistan have struggled in the past to find ways to move beyond petty disputes to governance, but the election of PUK member Rashid as president is expected to turn his party against the KDP and vice versa. Although the Iraqi presidency is mainly ceremonial and the prime minister is the head of the country’s government, whoever holds the position is symbolic and of great importance.

Despite tensions between the two factions, the distribution of seats in the upcoming central government could spark a new crisis in the troubled, self-governing Kurdish enclave in the north. Tensions are high between the two rival Kurdish camps because of a power struggle that has repeatedly forced them into shaky deals and alliances with outside parties. Earlier, Kurdish lawmakers voted to extend the regional parliament’s current four-year term for another year. The extension came after Kurdish political parties failed to hold regional elections scheduled for October 1. The failure to hold the vote was the result of disagreements between the KDP and the PUK over a new election law and a new quota system for allocating parliamentary seats.

But there is a third, and probably the main, issue that suggests al-Sudani’s premiership is hanging by a thread. The new government must calm the regular anti-establishment protests that have rocked the country since October 2019. They rebelled against rampant corruption, rampant unemployment, and the decline of public services in the country, forcing the government of former Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi to step down in 2020 and hold early elections a year later. Now, thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Baghdad and other major Iraqi cities to celebrate three years since the nationwide demonstrations. Leaders of the protests have given the country’s ruling oligarchs and leaders until the end of the month to push through sweeping changes, including the formation of an interim government that would transform Iraq’s current political system. Protests could flare up again at any time, forcing the new government to crack down on the protest movement. The situation could, and most likely will, escalate, giving al-Sadr the opportunity to “fire up” the protests again, as these protests have developed into the largest and longest-running social movement since 2003.

The formation of a new government may buy some time for Iraq’s ruling oligarchs and leaders, but it may only take a few weeks or months for a new outbreak of angry Iraqis. Al-Sudani, a protégé of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, is neither a powerful figure nor a proven leader. And many in Iraqi political circles believe he will be seen only as chairman, while al-Maliki, his former boss, will effectively become the chief executive of the new government. The months-long political stalemate in Iraq may be coming to an end and a new government could be formed within weeks, but it remains questionable how long this new stability can last.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, exclusively for the online journal “New Eastern Outlook”.

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