US election 2012: South Carolina build-up like a horse race where lead keeps changing

But Mr Gingrich was immediately impeded by a prime-time interview by his
second wife Marianne, who claimed he had sought an open marriage after
admitting to having an affair with his congressional aide, Callista – now
his third wife.

This was not good news for a candidate seeking to portray himself as the
conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, the front-runner.

Mr Romney meanwhile continued his recent poor run. Party officials in Iowa,
which held the first contest in the primary calendar on January 3, announced
he had in fact lost by 34 votes to Rick Santorum, and not won by eight votes.

He was battered further by stories about his wealth, with ABC News revealing
that he and his former company Bain had parked millions off shore in the
Cayman Islands.

The Romney campaign argued it wasn’t a tax dodge, but whatever the rights and
wrongs it added to the impression of Mr Romney as a money-laden one
percenter out of touch with ordinary folks.

Mr Santorum ended the day hoping that the good news from Iowa, coupled with
the former Mrs Gingrich’s revelations, could steer him into a second placed
finish on Saturday night.

Given Thursday’s commotion, predictions are perhaps foolhardy. A poor showing
by Mr Romney in Thursday night’s debate could prove very costly.

But most polls show Mr Romney will probably still win South Carolina to follow
his comfortable victory in New Hampshire. Even if he doesn’t, he remains a
forbidding favourite, with the money, campaign infrastructure and support
within the party establishment to last the distance of a primary schedule
that has only just begun.

A majority of Republicans think he has the best chance of beating Barack
Obama, and that fact alone is likely to see him through.

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