US elections 2012: Why Barack Obama’s open mike slip-up shows he is a man without a plan

They are, as I said, paranoid and riffing off the “enemy within”
narrative they’ve been playing since the days of Joe McCarthy, when
Communists ruled the Kremlin.

But just because you’re crazy doesn’t mean you’re stupid. This particular
Obama slip will leave a mark – and just not for the reasons the wingnuts on
the far-Right might think.

Yes, President Obama is riding high in the polls right now, buoyed by an
improving economy – leading the presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney
by double digits in some polls.

His job approval ratings are above 50 per cent for the first time since the
killing of Osama bin Laden, while Romney’s unfavourability ratings are
already above 50 per cent – a bad sign for a non-incumbent nominee heading
into the general election.

Nonetheless, this open mike slip will resonate, and probably appear in a
Romney campaign ad this fall, because it highlights a core weakness of the
Obama campaign – namely, his failure to make a clear case for what a second
term might bring. “More of the same” isn’t a satisfactory answer
in US campaigns.

When the president’s private diplomatic talks are revealed to contradict his
public commitment to missile defence with the American people, let alone
eastern European allies like Poland, it raises many more questions than it
answers. It gives credence to critics who said he was only paying
lip-service to the idea in the first place.

The fact that Obama’s request for “more space” this election year
came in a conversation with Russia’s leaders does little to ease concerns;
especially in the wake of yet another questionable Russian election and
Moscow’s decision to back the regime of Syrian dictator Assad as he
slaughters his own people.

Once the president is no longer constrained by the accountability that comes
from wanting re-election, centrist swing voters could be convinced that a
lurch to the Left might lie ahead, despite the president’s essentially
pragmatic progressive record to date.

The open questions are compounded by the fact that President Obama has yet to
lay out an agenda that diagnoses the current ills afflicting the country and
offers a new prescription.

To date, his campaign’s foundational message has been captured by this month’s
17-minute David Guggenheim-produced and Tom Hanks-narrated film that
essentially makes the case that the challenges Obama faced were
unprecedented.

It’s called The
Road We’ve Traveled
– but it sums up to “It could have been
much worse”. It’s a slick film, but not a winning message.

The fact that Obama’s request for “more space” this election year
came in a conversation with Russia’s leaders does little to ease concerns.

Clearly communicating policy accomplishments has not been an Obama
administration strength. A bumper sticker like “Killed bin Laden, saved
GM” would be too blunt for them.

Broken promises and missed opportunities litter the floor, especially when it
comes to dealing with the defecit and the debt. Yes, the economy is
improving, but slowly, and the fact that the signature legislative
accomplishment of the Obama administration – health care reform – could very
well be struck down by the Supreme Court in June is another stormcloud on
the horizon.

Romney’s immediate attempt to capitalise on the open mic moment, calling
Obama’s comments “alarming”, caused a controversy of his own, when
he called Russia “without question, our number one geopolitical foe”.

He’s levelled the same charge against Iran and China.

Discussion of foreign policy in the Republican primary campaign has largely
been limited to the kind of sabre-rattling which plays well to the
conservative populist base.

But Romney also violated an unwritten rule of American politics: don’t
criticise a president when he is travelling abroad. This in turn earned a
gentle rebuke from Republican House Speaker John Boehner, who said, “While
the president is overseas I think it’s appropriate that people not be
critical of him or our country.”

Boehner, an old school congressional dealmaker proved to be the adult in the
room, showing welcome restraint amid the reflexively anti-Obama impulses in
the Tea Party.

President Obama has benefited somewhat from the obsessive ill-will he has
received from the far-Right – they seem unhinged and irresponsible by
comparison.

But despite the recently comforting poll numbers, there is no room for
overconfidence among Democrats. Obama cannot hope to recapture the passion
of the 2008, when his campaign was a crusade.

The historic importance of his election was achieved the moment he took the
oath of office.

Making the case for a second term will have to be focused on a vision for
solving specific, still unresolved problems that still face the nation.

It will require new policies, not just promises – especially when promises can
seem to evaporate in negotiations with bad actors on the international stage.

* John Avlon is senior columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast

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