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The development of the satellite was one of the key weapons projects announced by Kim Jong-un during the congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in January 2021, along with a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (already launched) and a nuclear submarine (not yet seen).

Earlier, the DPRK announced the launch of a satellite five times – in 1998, 2009 and 2016 and twice (April and December) in 2012. However, it presumably only managed to put the satellite into orbit in December 2012 and in 2016, and even then, according to South Korean media, “it remains unknown whether they functioned normally.”

On February 27, 2022 North Korea launched a ballistic missile and the next day announced that it had conducted an important satellite-related test. Another “important test” was conducted on March 5, 2022.

On March 10, 2022, Kim Jong-un visited the North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration where he promised to put many military satellites into orbit in the next five years. The next day, the leader of the DPRK inspected the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and set the task to modernize the launch pad in such a way that it would be possible to launch various rockets for the delivery of multipurpose satellites.

On December 18, 2022, North Korea conducted an “important final stage” of testing its rocket launcher to bring a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit, with plans to complete preparations for the project by April 2023.

On April 18, 2023 Kim Jong-un announced completion by Pyongyang of the construction of a spy satellite, and ordered officials to prepare for its launch.

Since the beginning of May 2023, work at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station has resumed. The launch pad and adjacent structures have been reconstructed, plus there appeared signs of the construction of another launch pad.

On May 16, Kim Jong-un, accompanied by his daughter and other officials of the National Aerospace Development Administration, “guided the work of the reconnaissance satellite-launching preparatory committee on the spot.”

According to the KCNA, “he inspected the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 which is fully ready for loading, and approved the future action plan of the non-permanent preparatory committee.” According to Kim, the successful launch of the satellite is an “urgent requirement under the prevailing security environment.” “The more desperate the anti-North Korean confrontational machinations of the American imperialists and the South Korean puppet gang become, the more fair and square and legitimate will be the use by DPRK of its sovereignty and right to self-defense for the consistent deterrence of their machinations and protection of the state.”

After that, the experts of the Republic of Korea said that launch preparations may take three or four weeks, but most likely it won’t happen until July 27 – the date of signing the armistice that ended the Korean War of 1950-53. It seems the fact that in reality the DPRK very rarely times launches to special days did not disturb anyone.

That same day, May 17, Vedant Patel, deputy spokesperson for the State Department, also said the satellite launch would violate multiple international sanctions and the United States would take necessary steps to hold North Korea accountable should Pyongyang decide to go ahead with its planned launch.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Korea also promised to respond firmly if North Korea launched the military satellite, which was “clearly an illegal action that threatens regional peace and security” and could further raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula. “Our government will respond firmly to North Korea’s provocations by cooperating with the international community.” Japan as usual went even further and threatened to shoot down the satellite,

On May 28, North Korea notified the Japan Coast Guard that a military reconnaissance satellite would be launched between May 31 and June 11. Pyongyang has sent a similar notification to the International Maritime Organization (IMO).  This caused a new round of reminders from the Republic of Korea and the West that space is forbidden to Pyongyang, because, as a representative of the US State Department said on May 28, the launch vehicles use technologies similar to those used in ballistic missiles, including ICBMs, so their launches are also prohibited.

On May 29 Ri Pyong Chol, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea, confirmed that the satellite would be launched in June. Ri highlighted that under the present situation brought by the incessant military provocations by the US and South Korea, as well as considering the range of the reconnaissance forces deployed by the United States that cover not only the whole territory of the DPRK but also neighboring countries, North Korea felt the need to expand its own reconnaissance capabilities and improve various defensive and offensive weapons.

In this context, a reconnaissance satellite is urgently needed for early tracking and counteracting the “dangerous military acts by the US and its vassal forces,” as well as for strengthening the combat readiness of the armed forces. It is worth noting that Western experts also indicate that the North intends to secure its ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) means, since it lags far behind the South in such capabilities.

On May 31, 2023 the KCNA reported that “the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) of the DPRK launched a military reconnaissance satellite, “Malligyong-1,” mounted on a new-type carrier rocket, “Chollima-1,” at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Cholsan County of North Phyongan Province.” However, after the separation of the first stage, the launch vehicle “lost traction due to an abnormal activation of the second stage engine” (more precisely, the second stage engine was not started, as a result of which the rocket lost traction and the flight was interrupted) and fell into the international waters of the Yellow Sea about 200 kilometers west of the South Korean island of Ocheondo.

According to the NHK TV channel, Chollima-1 never entered outer space. The cause of the failure, according to KCNA, was supposedly the low reliability and stability of the engine system and the unstable character of the fuel used. The defects were being investigated, measures were being taken and the second launch would occur “as soon as possible.”

In Seoul, the launch was met with an air raid warning. At 6:32 a.m., the siren sounded, and at 6:41 a.m., nine minutes later, the Seoul mayor’s office sent notifications to residents of the city prepare to evacuate, prioritizing the elderly and children. However, the text of the notification did not explain the reasons for the alarm, nor did it indicate where to seek shelter. At 7:03 a.m., the Interior Ministry retracted the alert, saying the metropolitan government sent it by mistake. At 7:25 a.m., the mayor’s office officially canceled its warning as erroneous, since the flight route of the rocket did not run over the capital region. All this caused confusion, but, although Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon later apologized to citizens for the fuss caused by the city emergency alert that was sent on Wednesday, he remarked that the warning could have been an overreaction rather than a mistake.

Meanwhile, the South Korean military began to collect the available fragments of the rocket: at the time of writing this text, they managed to lift the hollow cylinder connecting the first and second stages, as well as an element of the upper part of the rocket about 15 meters long, which is almost half the length of the entire rocket. Searches are underway for the remaining parts of the rocket and, possibly, the reconnaissance satellite itself.

Concerning the foreign-policy reaction of the Republic of Korea, the US and the West, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo unanimously called Pyongyang’s actions “a brazen violation of UN Security Council resolutions.” The Republic of Korea and Japan called meetings of their National Security Councils.

According to Adam Hodge, United States National Security Council spokesperson, “the United States strongly condemns the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) for its launch using ballistic missile technology, which is a brazen violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions, raises tensions, and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region and beyond.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “strongly” condemned the launch and reiterated his call for Pyongyang to cease such acts and to “swiftly” resume dialogue for peace, as his spokesperson said in a statement.

Republic of Korea’s special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs Kim Gunn, US Special Representative on North Korea Sung Kim and Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director General for Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Takehiro Funakoshi “strongly condemned North Korea’s act of conducting launches that violate international law, and threaten the peace and stability of the international community.”

The ruling and main opposition parties of the Republic of Korea strongly condemned the rocket launch, although each side drew attention to different things. Conservatives stressed that North Korea fired a projectile in the southern direction (that is, towards the South; most ICBM launches were aimed at the east), Democrats criticized not only the North, but also the authorities – for false alarm and the fact that the President of the Republic of Korea was not personally present at the meeting of the National Security Council.

The anti-Yoon media also have paid much attention to the alarm – “what if it had been a real air raid”? North Korea fired a projectile at 6:27, the South’s military detected it at 6:29, and the Seoul city authorities activated the siren at 6:32. It took five minutes from the launch of the missile to the sound of the siren, despite the fact that it takes only two minutes for an enemy missile to hit Seoul.

According to analysts in the Republic of Korea, the botched launch “underlined both DPRK’s technological difficulties and rising space ambitions in the face of the superior military intelligence capabilities of South Korea and the United States.” It is interesting to evaluate similar launches by the Republic of Korea with the same standards – each of the launches of the Nuriho launch vehicle was postponed at the last moment, and even with a successful launch, one of the four satellites developed by the Korean Institute of Astronomy and Space Sciences probably failed to separate from the rocket for subsequent entry into near-Earth orbit – what should all THIS symbolize?

No less ridicule was caused by the reasoning that “the North is forging ahead with those projects despite international criticism that it is splurging its scarce national resources on developing weapons at the expense of people’s livelihoods.” Oh yes, that same old tired “they should have spent the money on kids instead” mantra.

But the funniest were arguments to the effect that the “regime keeps information about botched project from its own people” (the KCNA message was suddenly forgotten), and “North Korea’s unusually prompt admission of the failure of its purported reconnaissance satellite launch shows the regime’s effort to characterize the project as a scientific endeavor and not part of its missile program.”

 On June 1, 2023 in response to this commotion KCNA published the statement of Kim Yo-jong, vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea: “No one can deny the DPRK’s sovereign right to satellite launch,” in which she reminded about the universal right to civilian space and remarked that it was the US rather than the DPRK who was “escalating the tension unnecessarily and destabilizing the regional security situation.”

Kim Yo-jong said jokingly that “even if the DPRK launches a satellite in space orbit through balloon the US would claim it is illegal and threatening,” but it has no right to find fault with Pyongyang and “should cool its head heated with confrontation hysteria and clearly look into the UN Charter and the provisions of the space treaty once again.” “If the DPRK’s satellite launch should be particularly censured, the US and all other countries, which have already launched thousands of satellites, should be denounced,” stressed Kim Jong-un’s sister.

Thus, DPRK has “no content of dialogue with the US and its stooges that oft-repeat the “end of regime” and the “overthrow of system,” and does not feel the necessity of dialogue. And we will continue our-style counteraction in a more offensive attitude,” being “ready to do whatever to defend our sovereign right and interests.”

In addition, on June 1, KCNA published photos of the launch, from which it is possible to draw some conclusions about what the rocket was. When combined with satellite imagery, the following picture could be formed:

• a truly new three-stage launch vehicle was used, featuring an original shape, not similar to an ICBM. The nose cone of the Chollima-1 looks thickened – its diameter is larger than the size of the second and third stages, which is usually characteristic of heavy launch vehicles, and it is difficult to attribute the new North Korean missile to that class. Nevertheless, the missile is presumably based on the Hwasong-17 ICBM;
• The total length of the Chollima-1 is estimated at about 30 meters, the first stage is relatively short (less fuel and oxidizer), and the second and third look elongated; this suggests the use of a new engine there, which is supposed to have passed a shortened test program on the ground, which could have caused the accident.
• Judging by the flame, the engine of the first stage is liquid fuel, has four nozzles (according to other data, two), with probably four engines of the Paktusan type mounted in a single installation;
• The probable flight range of the Chollima-1 is 100 km shorter than that of the Unha-3, which was used in 2016. But the point of the planned dump of the second stage is 450 km further than that of the Unha-3 – its operation time is longer, and the flight is faster;
• The flight path of the first stage was deliberately chosen closer to China, outside KADIZ, in order to make it difficult for the South to find and lift it; at the same time, after the departure of the spent first stage, the rocket tried to change direction, but the engine of the second stage did not work properly, and due to the loss of thrust, the rocket crashed;
• The launching site in the photos appeared to be significantly different from the existing launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground. It may be a new seaside site located some 3 kilometers away from the main launch pad.
• The structure of the newly built launch complex is unique – the launch was performed from a concrete platform, without the use of a portal tower; – the building for the assembly of the rocket moves along the rails to the launch fixing device installed on the concrete platform;
• The “Malligyong-1” is a 1.3 meter-long small low-orbit satellite weighing 300 kilograms that, according to South Korean experts, can only conduct basic reconnaissance activities.
• Kim Jong-un is supposed to have personally observed the launch from a nearby location, as vehicles and tents for spectators were found near the observation deck located 1.3 km from the launch site.

One may wonder what comes next. Arguments have already begun in South Korean media that “due to the opposition of the two permanent members of the UN Security Council, Russia and China, the world community does not have the opportunity not only to adopt a resolution with new sanctions, but also a joint statement condemning Pyongyang’s actions. In this regard, the launch of the satellite by the North is likely to meet with no response from the UN Security Council.”

As for the date of the next launch, optimists say that the new rocket will take off during the period announced by Ri Pyong Chol (before June 11), and pessimists or those accustomed to believing in the technological backwardness of the DPRK insist that “North Korea will insist on conducting a test immediately before its Victory Day (July 27) or the anniversary of its founding (September 9). Most likely though, the next launch is expected to take place at the end of 2023 or early next year.”

Still, as the title of this article says, despite a rocky start, this won’t be the end of the space race between two Koreas, as many more stages are to come …

Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online journal “New Eastern Outlook.”

Сообщение DPRK satellite launch: a rocky start, but failures happen появились сначала на New Eastern Outlook.

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